Seasonal stock planning: how to buy right and clear it before it costs you
Operations · 17 May 2026 · 6 min read
The seasonal stock trap
Every year, the same story: you order seasonal stock conservatively, sell through it quickly, and wish you'd ordered more. Or you order confidently, the weather turns or the event underperforms, and you're moving marked-down stock two months after the event.
Getting seasonal stock right is part art, part data. The art is knowing your customers and your market. The data is knowing what actually happened last year — and the year before that.
Start with last year's numbers
Before you commit to any seasonal buy, pull up what happened with the same event last year. What did you order? What did you sell through? What did you clear at full price vs markdown? What did you bin?
If you don't have that data, this year is the year to start recording it. Log every waste event, every markdown, and every stockout against the seasonal period. In twelve months, you'll have a baseline that makes the next year significantly easier.
For stores using INV3NTORY, the waste log and stock history will already have this data. It's worth spending 20 minutes pulling a seasonal review at the end of each event.
The 70/20/10 ordering rule
A useful heuristic for seasonal stock: order 70% of what you think you'll sell, with a plan to reorder 20% more if the first 70% moves quickly, holding the last 10% back to see how the season lands.
The rationale: a sell-through of 70% at full price is almost always more profitable than 100% sell-through with 30% at heavy markdown. The cost of a small stockout is lower than the cost of clearance pricing on excess.
Adjust this ratio based on your confidence in the line. For products you've stocked successfully for several years with known velocity, you can be more aggressive. For new lines or categories you haven't done before, be more conservative.
Markdowns: when and how much
The right time to start marking down is before you need to, not after. For perishable seasonal items (Easter chocolate, fresh flowers, party food), start at 20–25% off with 5–7 days to go. If movement is slow, step to 40–50% at 2–3 days.
For non-perishable seasonal items (decorations, cards, gifting), you can afford to wait longer — but there's a window. Halloween merchandise clearing in mid-November is fine. Clearing it in February means you've been holding working capital for 4 months for no reason.
The exception is ranges you'll carry again next year, where quality holds up in storage. Tinned Christmas goods, non-perishable gifting, some alcohol — these can wait for an end-of-season sale rather than being cleared at cost.
Working with your suppliers
Most established seasonal suppliers offer confirmed orders months in advance with better pricing. If you have a clear view of what you want, committing early typically gets you a better unit cost than ordering at short notice.
The flip side: committed orders don't have a return window in most cases. Don't commit more than you're prepared to own. The discount isn't worth it if it's sitting on your shelf in January.
For new suppliers or new product lines, negotiate a small trial order before committing to a full seasonal range. A trial of 20% of the planned volume, with an option to top up, is usually achievable and protects you from a range that doesn't land.